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DANGEROUS_IDEAS


                                             February  4, 2008
                                             April    22, 2008

                                             BLACK_SWAN


      An uncomfortable notion I can't escape:
      Writers are not just responsible for
      what they literally say, but rather the
      way that they're actually read.  It's
      not about words on the page, it's about       INTO_THE_BRAINPAN
      ideas placed into human minds, and what
      happens with those ideas once they're
      there.                                    Perhaps notably:
                                                Taleb complains
                                                a lot about people
                                                reading him wrong.
                                                (p.280)



  One criticism: "The Black Swan"
  plays into the hands of macho
  gamblers: damn the experts,               I've heard it suggested
  full speed ahead.                         that Rumsfeld with his
                                            "known unknowns and unknown
  Taleb doesn't really have a lot           unknowns" babble was
  of positive advice for how to             showing that he was a
  live your life.                           Taleb fan.

  The best he can do is claim that             Would Taleb count him
  he is debunking harmful                      as a disciple?
  delusions.
                                               Isn't the Bush regime
  And when those delusions are gone,           a good example of trying
  how do you live?                             to live in "Extremistan"?

  It appears that you're supposed to

  (a) avoid learning about
      anything in detail

  (b) trust your instincts

  And this does sound a bit
  much like Bush and company...



           Taleb himself gets near this
           issue near the end of his
           Long Now lecture (Note:
           he does not say this in
           the book "The Black Swan").

           He suggests that in the realm of
           ideas it would be best if we
           were "hyperconservative":
                                                        WHEN_HYPOCRISY_DIES
           We should stick to traditional
           religion, because it fills a
           void that might otherwise be        I call this the "big lie"
           occupied by something more          theory of religion: we
           harmful, e.g. psychotherapy.        know it's nonsense but it
                                               helps keep the little
                                               people in line.

           Can one rank belief systems             So, how about:
           in terms of harmfulness?
                                                   We should accept the
                                                   statements of the
                                                   Bush/Cheney regime
                                                   uncritically, because
                                                   that's preferable to
   And once Taleb has shot                         the risk of falling
   down traditional                                for an even worse set
   investment advice, then                         of liars.
   what?
                                                         Reducto ad
                                                         Republicanism.


   Taleb may not intend to                              He claims to be
   provide a justification                              a humanist, and
   for the know-nothings                                has become an
   to know less, but it's    Granted that there         enemy of reason.
   inevitable                is indeed a problem
                             with the don't-know-         And a rather, stupid
                             as-much-as-they-thinks.      clumsy enemy at that:
                                                          who is going to be
                                                          persuaded by this
                                                          back-handed tribute
                                                          to religion?


     Two attitudes:

          You gotta work hard.
                                                Perhaps it would be best to
             vs.                                be "hyperconservative" and
                                                continue to celebrate the
          You gotta be lucky,                   value of hard work.


          Which attitude should be encouraged?
          Which attitude does Taleb encourage?



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