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DEAD_HAND
February 22, 2004
The April 1945 issue of
"Astounding Science Fiction" Four months to go
had as it's lead story, to the Hiroshima
"Dead Hand" by Issac Asimov. detonation on
August 6, 1945.
It was billed as
"A Foundation Story"
on the cover...
so that was already
a selling point by then.
This is a story with some very The second paragraph
clumsy language in places. takes a few readings
to decipher... I wonder
And it's characters are if it made it into the SECOND_PARAGRAPH
lightly sketched in at collected trilogy form.
best... but how could
it be otherwise?
In the space of 55 pages,
Asimov takes on the theme
of the inevitability of
corruption and decline, Yet another example that
using no less than 5 major contradicts the notion
characters representing that there's something
different viewpoints. inherently optimistic
about science fiction.
The two major factions
are, of course,
Foundation and Empire
but within *each* of The point is made that the
these is the old and old guard can do nothing
enervated and the without the assistance of
young and energetic. the young, but also that the This is explicit
old *must* regard the young for the Imperial
And then there's a as a threat to their side, less so for
fifth viewpoint, authority. the Foundation
Ducem Barr, a True side, but I think
Believer in Hari it's there.
Seldon and his
"psychohistory".
Psychohistory: Heh:
How are we supposed that child of Gibbon (Or at least, Gibbs
to take this man? He and stat-thermo. Asimov cited and
admits that he himself Gibbon. It Gibbon?
lacks the mathematics Based on an analogy couldn't be
to do psychohistory between human beings Spengler again,
himself, he just insists and gas molecules: could it?)
that if Seldon said it, unpredictable as
that's good enough for individuals, obeying I have a vague
him. strict rules in impression that
aggregate. Campbell and
He keeps telling Asimov were
people that PV=nRT, right? waging a quiet
there's no point war about who
in them trying to And yet, weather invented what
do anything, predictions a week here.
because it'll all ahead remain
come out as pretty weak... I remember
foreordained by Asimov insisting
Seldon. that he was
Psychohistory is thinking about
This all has the an interesting hitting Campbell
whiff of the notion, though as with the idea of
Gambler's Fallacy is typical of SF re-working
about it to me; it's worked up Gibbon. The
he's trying to into such an legend is that
make certain exaggerated form Campbell had
predictions on that this "science" this psycho-
the next roll of often might as history notion,
the dice based on well be magic. and it's
knowledge of the certainly got a
expected average The incredibly Campbell ring to
outcome. *detailed* it.
predictions
Seldon comes up (Asimov also
with, down to complained about
The young, energetic the *year* of a Campbell's
Foundation man says "crisis" a right wing
something about how hundred years attitudes and
this reasoning seems hence. Like near-racism,
backward to predicting next and explains
him... and I'm year's hurricanes. that this is
inclined to agree. why aliens
were left out
But maybe I'm *supposed* of the Foundation
to agree. Maybe this man universe...
is an example of He didn't want
psychohistory in decline, to have to write
a science degenerating another hymn to
into a religon.... the superiority
of humans -- in
Issac Asimov is their ultimate
not generally incarnation as
given credit for WASPs.)
subtlety, but there
are a number of
touches like this
that make you wonder.
What was Asimov thinking
about when he was
contemplating historical
necessities, and the
frailty of any human DECLINATION
organization?
In the background lurks the
second World War on the heels
of the first, after the Great
Depression that in many
people's minds had discredited
capitalism quite as thoroughly
as the collapse of the Soviet
Union discredited communism
for us.
The Empire with it's direct
The "dead hand" of command-and-control structure
title refers to the is dying, and the more
debate about whether mercantilist Foundation is
they are all dancing already showing some signs of
to Seldon's strings collapse under greed and
(or more accurately, complacency.
to the strings Seldon
identified), of if
there remains any
latitude for human
action to effect events.
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