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May 9, 2008
According to Taleb (p.210-211),
we can't know the probabilities,
but we can estimate the magnitudes (Sounds a bit like
of the effects, and use those Peter Schwartz on
to make intelligent decisions. scenario planning.)
Does that make any sense at all?
How do you choose which events
to evaluate, if you don't
Why worry more about
What's the difference? Huge.
One is likely to hit particular
places, the other could strike
anywhere, and possibly
everywhere. The energy involved
in both could be enormous, but
the asteroid impact is
potentially many orders larger.
The darkest of Black Swans.
But earthquakes would seem to be
more likely, since they're part
of the historical record, and
large asteroid impacts are
recorded largely only in the
Should the San
Franciscan worry more
about asteroids than
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