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KRUGMAN_INCLINED


                                       January 20, 2010

                                                      KRUGMAN_FUNNIES
In which I step up to
defend Paul Krugman from         Paul Krugman isn't bothering
Richard Posner:                  (presumably he has more
                                 important things to do).

     "Honesty About the Stimulus", Aug 18 2009
     [ref]

     "... I am concerned with the fact that
     academic economists, when they become either
     public officials or public intellectuals
     (like Paul Krugman), leave behind their
     academic scruples. (This is one of the
     themes of my book Public Intellectuals: A
     Study of Decline [2001])--and Krugman was
     one of my examples of the phenomenon.)"       And this article
                                                   apparently has a
                                                   number of different
                                                   problems:

                                                   [ref]
Posner has sniped repeatedly
at Krugman, and he repeatedly
cites a few pages of his own
book for support, but I've
read those pages, and they
don't support much of anything.     At least, they don't support
                                    anything against Krugman.
    You can read them
    too, easily enough:

        "Public Intellectuals: A Study in Decline"
        [ref]

Posner's big gripe here against Krugman?

Krugman supported a reasonable claim
with some examples that are dubious.

The claim is simply that the present state
of the economy is "path dependant",
e.g. there is such a thing as a "first
mover" advantage that can win out over
products of superior quality.

The two examples that
Posner complains about             In the interests of not just
(there are many others             assuming that Posner has
that he doesn't mention):          represented Krugman exactly, let's
                                   take a look at the original...
(1) that Krugman once used the
QWERTY keyboard as an example               Peddling Prosperity (1994)
of first mover lock-in.  Posner
argues that the evidence that               PEDDLING_PROPERITY
Dvorak is better than QWERTY is
weak, though it is a common
impression that the Dvorak is
superior (Dvorak did a good job
of selling us on at least that
much, if not on the keyboards                 Taken together, these
themselves).                                  sound like they might
                                              be something we would
(2) Posner has a gripe about                  call "mistakes", perhaps
Krugman's take on events with the             even "honest mistakes".
aircraft industry after WWII--
It took me a few reads to get                     The claim that this
it, but it's this:                                reveals some sort of
                                                  corruption of intellectual
                                                  standards is, shall we
Krugman suggests (in a footnote!) that            say, not established.
you might expect the superiority of the
British spitfire in WWII to translate             The idea that academic
into a lasting economic advantage, and            peer review makes
he suspects that a "likely culprit" for           minor gaffs like this
the loss of this lead was heavy                   impossible (or even,
Pentagon spending, which effectively              reduces their
supported US industry during it's                 likelihood all that
formative years.                                  much) seems a trifle
                                                  optimistic.

Posner, with a dazzling display of
heavily footnoted detail, says that
this wasn't necesarily the case.
He doesn't prove it wrong, you            He makes one point that at least
understand, he just wants to say          sounds like it might be a good
it's not an established point.            point, stating that the US was
                                          already a leader in commercial
                                          aircraft during WWII.

                                          It would seem to me that
                                          Krugman's initial point
                                          still survives: the Brits
                                          were a leader at least
                                          in military aircraft,
                                          and then after awhile
                                          they weren't.  Why not?



   "My point is not that Krugman is
   wrong in his analysis of
   international trade; I am not                 What, Posner is not
   competent to say.  Nor is it that             competent to comment
   path dependence is a nonexistent or           on a given subject?
   unimportant phenomenon.  My purpose           Whoa.
   is to draw the reader's attention to
   the casualness with which evidence is            The casualness with
   handled in much public-intellectual              which evidence is
   work because of the absence of the               handled?  Krugman
   usual gatekeepers who filter an                  cites by name the
   police academic publication."  (p.99)            primary researchers
                                                    here...
      Meanwhile, Posner is ignoring
      many other examples Krugman                   Is Posner sincerly
      marshalls that no one is                      asserting that if one
      going to challenge: the                       tried to publish an
      success of the VHS tape                       academic paper refering
      format, the location of                       to David and Arthurs's
      Silicon Valley, etc.                          work in the '80s without
                                                    mentioning this one
      What does that matter, compared               gotcha publication that
      to the fact that Kruman had a                 Posner knows of from
      few examples that might be weak?              1990, the reviewers
                                                    would catch that and
      Hey, that just goes to show what              kick the work back?
      happens when a professional
      oversteps the bounds of their
      profession (unless you're a
      genius like Posner, of course).


   From a New Yorker interview                   [ref]
   with Richard Posner:

   "It does bother me about economists--not just
   (Paul) Krugman and De Long; it's just not a
   liberal versus conservative thing. Some
   conservative writing bothers me also. They
   are not at all reluctant about taking
   extreme positions in an Op-Ed, or in blogs,          Is being a
   and so on. It really demeans the profession."        conservative
                                                        a profession?
     It's nice to hear that some
     conservatives bug him.  It's                          (Silly
     not worth naming their names                          question,
     though, not when you need to                          I know.)
     dig into Paul Krugman some more.

  More from the same interview:
                                            [ref]
   "Krugman is obviously a good
   economist. He's got this book, 'The
   Return of Depression Economics.' It's
   very good...But his column for The New
   York Times is really irresponsible,
   nasty. Sometimes on his blog he makes           Whoa.  Accusations!
   accusations."                                   Of what?  (Does he
                                                   accuse people of being
                                                   irresponsible and nasty,
   "In one of his columns, he                      maybe?)
   suggested that conservatives
   were traitorous. He used the                    Then there's the fact that
   word 'treason.'"                                Posner accused Krugman
                                                   of having "left behind
                                                   his academic scruples".
   Okay, now it only
   takes a minute to                                   (It's often observed
   find the Paul                                       that their may be a
   Krugman "treason"                                   touch of ironic
   article he's                                        self-reference in
   complaining about:                                  Posner's sub-title:
                                                       "A Study in Decline".)
   "Betraying the Planet", June 28, 2009
   [ref]

Why don't you go read
that, I can wait.

Oh, what the hell, let me quote some
of it.  Here's Paul Krugman being
"irresponsible" and "nasty":

   "... most rejected the bill because they
   rejected the whole notion that we have to
   do something about greenhouse gases.

   "And as I watched the deniers make their
   arguments, I couldn't help thinking that
   I was watching a form of treason --
   treason against the planet."

   "...  you didn't see people who've thought
   hard about a crucial issue, and are trying
   to do the right thing. What you saw,
   instead, were people who show no sign of
   being interested in the truth. They don't
   like the political and policy implications
   of climate change, so they've decided not
   to believe in it -- and they'll grab any
   argument, no matter how disreputable, that
   feeds their denial."

Are you feeling a deep sense of outrage there
at that immoderate use of the word "treason"?

But that's the old "shrill" Paul Krugman for
you... to get calm, intelligent commentary,
you might look up this quote:

   "...  the inanity of trying to substitute
   will for intellect, as in the denial of
   global warming..."

     That's by Richard Posner.
     He actually doesn't disagree
     with Krugman on this issue.

     [ref]
     "Is the Conservative Movement Losing Steam?"  May 10, 2009

          The important thing, you see,
          is not whether the planet
          is on the brink of destruction,
          the key thing is that we must
          be polite about it.

             (Calling people who disagree with
             you inane is okay, though.)



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