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LONG_VIEW

H.G. Wells and the _Outline of History_
                                   
H.G. Wells, in his "Outline of          SCALE
History", around p. 815 (of the    
3rd edition) discusses the         
conclusion of Gibbon's "The        
Decline and Fall of the Roman      
Empire".                           
                                   
    Wells uses Gibbon as an        
    example of the blindness              There's some irony in this in
    of the men of his class               that Wells "Outline" can also
    and times.                            be used this way...            ARYAN
                                   
                                   
Gibbon, writing around 1780,              Wells, writing around 1920 in
wonders if the British Empire             his final chapter "The Next
could fall just as Rome fell:             Stage of History" argues that
                                          a world government is
"Europe is now divided                    necessary and desireable.
into twelve powerful, though       
unequal kingdoms, three                                    WORLDGOV
respectable commonwealths, and a   
variety of smaller, though         
independent, states; the chances   
of royal and ministerial talents           According to Wells,
are multiplied, at least with the          Gibbon is a "gentleman"
number of its rulers....  The              who expects that all rulers
abuses of tyranny are restrained           will naturally be "gentlemen",
by the mutual influence and fear           by the nature of things.
of shame; republics have acquired  
order and stability; monarchies    
have imbibed the principles of     
freedom, or, at least, of          
moderation; and some sense of      
honour and justice is introduced           Wells chides Gibbon for
into the most defective                    being blind to the internal
constitutions by the general               pressures building up that
manner of the times.  In peace,            would lead to the conflicts
the progress of knowledge and              between the rulers and the
industry is accelerated by the             ruled.
emulation of so many active        
rivals: in war, the European               And further: "Gibbon forgets
forces are exercised by temperate          here that cannon and the
and undecisive contests."                  fundamentals of modern
                                           military method came to
                                           Europe with the Mongols."
                                   
"Europe is secure from any future  
irruption of Barbarians; since,             Common wishful thinking in
before they can conquer, they must          SF: anyone advanced enough
cease to be barbarous..."                   to cross interstellar space
                                            will be socially advanced enough
                                            to treat us better than we've
                                            treated "inferior" cultures in
                                            the past.
                                   
                                                 "The Day the Earth Stood Still"
                                   
                                   
An important lesson, I think, of the "Outline":
                                   
                                   
  "History has never                    
  gone simply forward."          p. 1091     
                                                  
      
      The curve of history is not smooth.         
      Extrapolating from current conditions is    
      always dangerous, since they may be a       
      minor deviation from the broad trend.       
                                                 
         Two centuries elapsed      
         between Roger Bacon and   
         Sir Francis Bacon. Two        
         centuries between the idea
         of science and it's       
         popularization.               
                                       
            If Roger Bacon had to      
            wait that long, how        
            can I complain if          
            humanity seems to be   
            sleepwalking?            
                                     
                                     
"One cannot foretell the             
surprises or disappointments the     
future has in store."   p. 1100     
                                               The lesson of service?
"It may be that 'private                       How exactly should an
enterprise' will refuse to learn               enlightened capitalist
the lesson of service without                  behave?
some quite catastrophic                                    Current libertarian
revolution, and that a phase of         This, seems        thought would be
confiscation and amateurish             all too            that this
socialistic government lies             prophetic.         enlightenment,
before us."                                                this altruism,
                                                           should be
                                                           unnecessary.
                                    
"Human history becomes more         
and more a race between                                  
education and catastrophe."             Oft quoted.              
                                        Like Fuller's            
"Yet clumsily or smoothly, the          Choice between           
world, it seems, progresses and         "Utopia or Oblivion"     
will progress."                                                  
                                                                
                                   
                                  
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