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NARRATIVE_DRIVE

                                                           April 6, 2008
If our grasp of narrative is central to                    May   6, 2008
our understanding of the world, then it
would seem to be something that needs
study.                                     RELUCTANT_STORYTELLER


   It raises some interesting possibilities:
   one might save the world with a school of
   literary criticism.

       At the heart of our study of
       humanity is a study of stories.


The kind of stories we like, the way we
relate to stories, the different kinds      Why is it that it's easier
of stories that might be produced, and      to get Americans interested
the ways we might be able to relate to      in stories about mythical
them if we made an effort to do so...       Iraqi nukes than in stories
                                            about a neo-fascist takeover
                                            of the U.S., justified by
   These are huge subjects,                 trumped-up external threats?
   possibly critically
   important subjects.                          What makes people shudder at
                                                the thought of nuclear
                                                accidents, but shrug off
                                                thousands of deaths from coal
      If there's a problem with our             exhausts?
      collective understanding of                          
      the world, might it not be                                             
      at root a disease of narrative?                   Perhaps we need a    
                                                        wider taxonomy of    
                                                        the unpredicted.     
                                                        Some swans that      
                     The theory that I come             alight become       
                     back to often is that              ominous vultures    
                     the trouble may be that            all expect to       
                     we don't take our                  return: 9/11,       
                     stories seriously.                 Chernobyl/TMI...    
                                                                            
                     Once, stories were                 Do all?
   Peter Schwartz,   held in regard as
   is an advocate    something sacred...                Are all disasters
   of "scenario      perhaps that made                  dark swans?
   planning",        some sense.
   i.e. grasping at                                        Or is there a
   the future by                                           syndrome of
   telling multiple                                        ignoring the
   stories.                                                possibilty
                                                           that some dark
         ART_OF_THE_MULTIPLE_VIEW                          birds will
                                                           ever return,
                                                           in spite of
                                                           all historical
                                                           evidence?

                                                             Wars.
                     Taleb does admit                        Floods.
                     that we don't always
                     underestimate the odds     RISK_ASSESSMENT
                     of big changes:

                           "... there are conditions
                           under which people
                           overestimate the unusual or
                           some specific unusual event
                           (say when sensational images
                           come to their minds) -- which,
                           we have seen, is how insurance
                           companies thrive." -- p. 141


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