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PEDDLING_SUSTAIN

                              November 6, 2001
                        Rev:  August   5, 2007   (toned down the
                                                  'tarian stuff
                                                  mildly)

                                                      DOOM_CONTRA_TARIAN
Sustainability

A constant refrain of the
environmental-left.

Usually the context is opposition to
fossil fuels.  "We are running out of
them" and hence must abandon their use
immediately.

My problem with "sustainability":
how do you know what you can
sustain?

It presumes that you're going to restrict
yourself to what you know you can do, but       Before you can experiment
none of us really knows what that is.           with a new technique, you
                                                will be required to show
                                                it can scale up and be used
                                                everywhere forever after?

                                                     But niche techniques
But let's say in principle                           are okay for niche
we agree that oil/coal                               applications --
should be phased out.
How do you do that?                                      And a "niche"
                                                         might be defined
(1) Look for subsidies,                                  by temporal
and remove them.                                         restrictions.

(2) Estimate "externalities"
(damage inflicted on the world
not included in the price) and      And I've always liked
add taxes to compensate.            the emissions trading
                                    idea.
And then you let the market
do it's stuff.  The "fossils"                     But I've yet to see
get more expensive, people                        evidence of "cap and
start scouting around for                         trade" working with the
other things to use, and                          usual political process.
gradually a shift happens
to some other power sources.                            Wouldn't you expect
                                                        the cap to always
   There's no reason to                                 be set higher than
   assume that these                                    it should be?
   other sources will
   meet the greenies                                        (And any
   definition of                                            opportunity
   "sustainable".                                           to pay for
                                                            what you don't
   Currently the way                                        need has a way
   we do things is a                                        of being
   juggling act.           Is the "juggling                 exploited as
                           act" sustainable?                a money
   We use what we've                                        laundering
   got, when it                                             scheme.)
   starts to get              Does sustainability
   scarce, the price          imply stasis?
   starts to go up,
   so we start
   looking to using
   something else.
                           Try this scenario:

     Going cold            We use energy from fossil fuels to get
     turkey on coal        a low-earth orbit industrial rev going,
     isn't likely to       and beam massive amounts of solar energy
     be a great idea.      down from power sats, which in turn can
                           be used for future space development.
     (But then,
     getting off           Is it "sustainable" to use the fossil
     the junk              fuels to get to that point?
     quickly
     certainly                Whether you buy
     is.)                     this particular        I have more reservations
                              scenario isn't         these days about solar
                              that important.        power satellites than
                                                     I used to: I worry about
                              The point is that      the reliability of
                              there may be           gossamer thin devices
                              regions you can        subjected to a constant
                              pass through that      rain of micro-meteorites.
                              look unsustainable,
                              in order to get to         And while bringing
                              somewhere without          down lauch costs to
                              limits.                    a level where we
                                                         can experiment with
                                                         these devices seems
                                                         doable, it's clear
                                                         that NASA isn't
                                                         going to do it.


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