[PREV - MERCHANTS_OF_DOUBT]    [TOP]

SPECTER_OF_DENIALISM


                                             February 19, 2011

Michael Specter, "Denialism" (2009)

A book about various areas where many
people have choosen to ignore the
scientific evidence where it conflicts
with their beliefs, where the beliefs
in question are things such as:

   o   vaccinating children is bad for them
   o   organic food is good for your health
   o   genetically modified food is evil
   o   nutritional supplements work
   o   race is a social construct               (The last is a
                                                bit of an odd
                                                man out, eh?)

         Specter claims that he is an
         equal-opportunity, non-partisian
         critic of irrationality; but        This makes this a good
         with a few exceptions, I think      companion piece for a
         this book focuses on delusion       a book like "Merchants
         systems more common on the          of Doubt", which is
         left than the right.                about a species of
                                             "denialism" that comes
                                             from the right.

                                                           MERCHANTS_OF_DOUBT
A good book, but not a great one: this is a
plea for rationality and intellectual rigor;
but he skips the bother of supporting the
text with actual footnotes, making it a
polemic full of intentionally controversial          Michael Specter himself
statments that are *sometimes* grounded in           is not a man with any
references to the scientific studies, but            technical qualifications,
are sometimes left dangling.                         his assertions certainly
                                                     can not stand on his own
He claims a reverence for scientific studies         reputation.
that's not quite reflected in his writing
style.                                               Perhaps he's used to
                                                     writing for "The New
                                                     Yorker" where one can
                                                     rest on the magazine's
                                                     reputation for
                                                     fact-checking.
  For someone like myself who is already
  in sympathy with most of his positions,            And when you get
  this is a book of some interest, but               away from Specters
  it's not very helpful for convincing the           main subjects, I
  unconverted.                                       think he has a
                                                     tendency to say some
  Consider this quote, which                         very dubious things.
  if correct is a stunning
  indictment of "free range"
  meat:

    "Water scarcity may be the most visible problem
    caused by our addiction to meat, but it is not
    the only one: to make a pound of beef requires
    nearly a gallon of fuel.  To put that into
    perspective, producing one kilogram of the
    grass-fed beef so revered by organic devotees
    and high-end restaurants causes the same amount
    of greenhouse gas emissions as driving a small
    car 70.4 miles.  Even for beef raised less
    luxuriously (fed by grain on industrial farms)
    the figure is nearly forty-five miles.  Eating
    meat is ecologically ruinous: according to a
    2008 study by researchers at Carnegie Mellon
    University, if we all skipped meat and dairy
    just one day each week it would do more to lower
    our collective carbon footprint than if the
    entire population of the United States ate
    locally produced food every day of the year."
        -- p. 115

        Where did he get those precise figures
        for the fuel used to raise cattle in
        different ways?  Did it all come out      And perhaps worse, it's not
        of the 2008 CMU study?  It's not at       at all clear what the
        all clear from the way it's written.      assumptions are behind the
                                                  figures.  What about locally
                                                  raised grass-fed cattle?
                                                  Are we talking about grass
                                                  raised "organically" or with
                                                  artificial fertilizers? Etc.



Specter has some scathing criticism of
"alternative medicine" practitioners such
as Andrew Weil who claims that you can
live your life both by his
"alternative" and according to science.

Specter is adamant that knowledge from large
scale, randomized clinical trials trumps all,
and is impatient with the notion that
"intuition" or "experience" (i.e. anecdote)
deserves an equal footing.

   I have to say it's certainly refreshing
   to run into a scientific fundamentalist,
   and if you're going to go in for an
   extreme, that's a good way to bet.            As a great man has put it:

   But it really isn't as simple as that...          "Science: it
                                                     works, bitches."
   You can't live your life by scientific
   studies alone, because all the studies
   haven't been done, and they can't be          The study that shows that
   done, there are too many variables to         chemcial X is safe may
   examine.                                      have neglected a
                                                 synergetic effect with
                                                 exposure to chemical Y.

                                                      Then you need to start
                                                      worrying about
                                                      chemicals A, B, C...

                                                         The phrase is
                                                         "combinatoric
                                                         explosion".

      And further, practicing scientists
      don't actually believe every study
      they read--

      The Data is one member of the
      pantheon, but it alone is not
      sacred... sometimes you suspect         I'm one of the biggest
      the data because it contradicts         fans of "scientific
      a beloved theory, and sometimes         materialism" it's
      guesses like that are vindicated.       likely you've ever
                                              encountered, and yet
                                              even for me I don't
                                              immediately adopt every
                                              report of experimental
                                              evidence I hear.

                                                  For example, I have my
                                                  doubts that "twin studies"
                                                  are really all that good
                                                  for settling nature-nurture
                                                  issues.
                  NATURE_OF_THE_WALLS
                                                  And I remain skeptical of
                                                  the claims that moderate
                                                  drinking is good for you.

                                                                (Dec 31, 2023)
         Specter documents a real problem:
         people in general have trouble               Actually that was
         evaluating scientific data, and              borne out as of 2008:
         throw out the baby with the Vioxx.
                                                           NO_SAFE_LEVEL
         Specter's solution appears to be to
         simply insist that we need to return           But more recent data
         to trusting the experts, even though           might undermine even
         we know that the experts are wrong             that study.      
         on occasion, and on rare occasions
         disastrously so.

             Specter is no doubt correct that
             in a duel between folk wisdom and
             science, the odds favor science...

             But this seems like a very
             unpersuasive philosophy,             A thought I come back
             even to someone like me who          to every other week:
             essentially agrees with him.
                                                  Doesn't it seem like
                                                  we're in need of a new
                                                  social institution, a new
                                                  mechanism for evaluating
                                                  complex data?









--------
[NEXT - WHATS_GOOD_FOR_GM]