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TOO_MANY_ACTORS

                                             February 20, 2007
                                             July     15, 2007

  How many members can a
  conspiracy have before                         BURNED_IN_2004
  it becomes unlikely
  that it can remain secret?                     INCREDIBLE_BUSH


Many conspiracy scenarios
run into the counter-claim
that they require a large
group of conspirators, and
perfect secrecy, and the two
don't go together.


This argument seems plausible to me in
the case of the "9/11 truth movement",
and unpersuasive in the case of the
"2004 election fraud".

   So what's the
   difference
   (if any)?


One point that the anti-fraudies don't
seem to grasp is that there have been
leaks, defections, and screwups, they
just get ignored by the "mainstream
media" (perhaps better known as "the
establishment media").  They're
mentioned briefly, if at all, then filed
away as attention seekers, or strange
one-off flukes.

Some one like myself sees them
as tip-of-the-iceberg, and wants                On the other hand in the
to know more...                                 case of the truthies,
                                                they'll seize on what looks
Other people refuse to admit there's            to me like like a small
anything that needs investigation.              anomaly (to borrow a useful
                                                word from Bill Weinberg)
                                                and make as much of it as
                                                they can.

                                                  E.g. there's some guy
              Maybe the difference is             who was inside the WTC
              that the "truthies" try             who claims to have heard
              to use small anomalies              an explosion from down
              to counter large quantities         below before the collapse.
              of evidence, and the
              "fraudies" point to                    That's supposed to be
              small anomolies in a near              serious evidence that
              vacuum of any other kind               there were explosive
              of evidence.                           charges planted in
                                                     the basement.

                                                       But just off the top of
                                                       my head, there are too
                                                       many other possible
Maybe there's an                                       explanations to put a
analogy to the Drake Equation:                         lot of weight on this
                                                       one report.  E.g. a
                                                       shock wave traveling
Given some number of actors...                         down some open chanel
                                                       (ventilator?  elevator
Some percentage will later defect.                     shaft?) so that an
                                                       airline impact above
Some percentage of those defectors                     produces a boom down
will not be supressed.                                 below.

Some percentage of those who are
not supressed who will not be                          Or let's say an
ignored.                                               explosive was
                                                       planted below.
                                                       Why would one
  It's hard to slip through                            assume that it
  this gauntlet of                                     was a US plant,
  fractional factors.                                  and not another
                                                       avenue of Al
                                                       Qaeda attack?
                     These fractions may
                     be factorized into
                     sub-fractions, showing
                     more detail.

                             Defection rate as a function of time?

                             There's a time limit on significance:

                             Death-bed revelations decades hence
                             aren't likely to matter much.



  Note that death-bed
  recantations too,
  have, the same
  gauntlet to run.

    A hitman confesses
    to assisting Oswald.      (Hypothetical.
                               Don't get excited.)
    Does someone
    believe him?

    Does his confession get
    passed on to someone who              (And what if They have also
    will publish it?                      threatened his family if he
                                          does the death-bed confession?
       Or is it intercepted by            Why would you ever expect
       some family member?                these confessions to happen?)
       Or perhaps by Them?


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