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September 14, 2013
Settling whether "peak oil"
is real is a matter of data
(and definition). Here I touch
on this only lightly: PEAKED
My focus instead is on the
psychological role I think
the doctrine plays for the
peakies-- and perhaps about
my own psychological reasons
for rejecting it...
But beyond psychology-- after all
they could be right, even if for
the wrong reasons-- there is a
point in here about the track There are complications
record of predictions for a though: who is a member
particular faction. of what faction?
Predictions are supposed to matter. Kunstler was predicting
peak in 30 years
They're central to the scientific 20 years ago... in
method, as usually described. 10 years, will we be
able to declare
Kunstler wrong?
Would that discredit
all peakies, or just
Kunstler?
Not that I expect
Kunstler to conceede
defeat in 10 years:
I expect him to say
things like:
"I said *roughly*
30 years."
"Oil prices *are*
kind of high right
now, we really are
near the end."
"I was just referring
to (without referencing)
Dr X's study, and since
then he revised the
prediction--"
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