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UPZONE

                                             October 15-20, 2013

There's an idea going around:

When housing prices are so high that people
are getting priced out, obviously we need           E.g in a place
to "upzone", i.e. build more housing, at a          like San Francisco.
higher density.


                        This is a notion I'm seeing floated of late--
                        notably at the Atlantic Cities site:

                        Gabriel Metcalf, "The San Francisco Exodus".
                        http://www.theatlanticcities.com/housing/2013/10/san-francisco-exodus/7205/


You can see the reasoning:

   (a) New Urban doctrine has it that higher density is
   better, so why not turn up the knob higher?

   (b) simple supply-and-demand economics suggests that
   when the price is high, the market should increase the supply--
   and presumably it would, if it weren't artificially restricted.

There are some points I would make against these points.
First, concerning (b):

   At the late date you'd think alarm bells
   would go off when someone starts saying
   something like "we just need to deregulate
   and let the free market work!".

      There were presumably reasons
      for the regulations, and before
      just dropping them, you should      Is this The premise?  "We need
      consider how else the reasons       more *affordable* housing,
      might be satisfied.                 therefore we should allow lots
                                          more housing in general, and
                                          we'll get some affordable housing
                                          out of the deal-- eventually."

                                          That's a rather indirect approach to
                                          solving a problem, and it's also a
                                          rather theoretical one.  Is it really
                                          borne out by experience?  E.g. did
                                          building Rincon Tower improve the
                                          situation in any measureable way?

                                          While it sounds plausible we might
                                          reach the desired end this way, there
                                          are other plausible outcomes.  E.g.
                                          once the developers are unleashed,
                                          SF may drown in Condoscitis and
                                          Craptastic Towers until it simply
                                          doesn't seem cool any more, and
                                          the demand drops off to near nothing.

                                              Once The Brand has been
                                              depleted, the developers
                                              will move on to mine
                                              somewhere else.

And concerning (a):

If SF is more popular than South Bay, then why is
it that SF needs to be fixed, and not South Bay?

Some degree of urban density is no doubt desired--
many of us now realize that suburbia was a mistake--   Some further thoughts:
but why is it San Francisco's problem to get even
more dense when much of the rest of the Bay Area       There may be an upper
isn't even trying?                                     limit to the
                                                       desireable density.
    ROUND_PENTAGON                                     Just because more is
                                                       better at one point
                                                       doesn't mean more is
                                                       always better.

                                                     There may very well be
                                                     sensible limits on the
                                                     rate of change of
                                                     density.  The question
                                                     may not be "how high",
                                                     but "how fast".

                                                          DRAG


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