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WIDE_FIELD

                                             March 26, 2008

                                             BLACK_SWAN
My introduction to Taleb
of "Black Swan" fame was
his Long Now lecture.
I thought I spotted                It's really good for me to
something of a kindred             encounter people like this,
spirit, a person who was           because being a contrarian
saying some things very            I immediately begin arguing
similar to things I'd been         with them, and so "awaken
known to say.                      from my dogmatic slumber".

He has very little patience
for traditional investment
advice, sneering at the
charlatans in suits and ties.


   Once, I came home to find
   one of my housemates
   reading a "how to get
   rich" book by some famous
   investor dude, and I
   expressed skepticism that             WHY_TELL_YOU
   the advice could possibly
   be worth anything.

   He pointed out that this was
   written by someone who was
   very successful, famous for
   his excellent track record at
   picking winners.

   I thought for a moment and
   replied "Of all the people
   who have tried playing the
   stock market over the years,       The notion that someone may
   wouldn't you expect that           have won many bets "just by
   *some* of them would be on         luck" seems improbable, but
   the extreme end of the             when you have a near infinite
   the distribution?"                 supply of gamblers to choose
                                      from, it's not so difficult to
   He grasped my point                find a lucky streak
   immediately:                       after-the-fact.

       He agreed tentatively,
       but sounded dubious,
       and then started
       laughing saying that
       they should call my
       investment philosophy
       "being a randomist".         "Actually, adventurers
                                    who feel singled out by
                                    destiny abound, simply
                                    because there are plenty
                                    of adventurers, and we do
                                    not hear the stories of
                                    those down on their luck."

                                       -- Taleb, "The Black Swan", p. 114




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