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COGNITIVE_BIAS_BIASES


                                             February 05, 2019

Up at wikipedia, you will find
a very long listing of "cognitive biases",
showing an impressively long list of them,
all impressively named with one-liner
descriptions.

The odds are fairly good-- for someone taking
the trouble to read this-- that you've looked at
this listing and been tremendously impressed by      The sheer length of the
the length of it.  You, like me, may have made a     list puts over a particular
mental note to study it more carefully and put       view of human nature
it aside for years.                                  as weak reeds that are
                                                     even flimsier than you
  Consider the way this list is actually used:       supposed.
  You're involved with a discussion on one of
  the critical issues of our time, say, the            I started looking at them
  great debate on the appropriate type of              more closely recently
  paper to publish comic books.                        for odd reasons--
                                                       I wanted to read them
  Someone may suggest that the proponents              on the air as part of
  of traditional cream-colored paper are               some sound art.
  clearly wrong, and that they are
  exhibiting the well-known cognitive bias           COGNITIVE_BIAS_PENTAMETER
  of the Nerf Ball Effect.  They will no
  doubt provide a helpful link to the                     Any way of engaging
  massive list of cognitive biases, where                 with the material,
  there is indeed a one-liner repeating                   no matter how silly,
  what they just said about The Nerf Ball                 is better than none.
  Effect.

    At this point, you may go
    away with a sense that the    More experienced debaters are more likely
    scientific authorities        to contrive an alternate interpretation
    support slick white paper.    showing that it is actually those damn
                                  white paper supremacists who are guilty of
    If you read the list more     the Nerf Ball Effect.
    carefully you might realize
    that there's another
    identified bias called "The
    Aluminum Bat Effect" that's
    the precise opposite.                     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias#cite_ref-38

    The actual behavior being exhibited
    doesn't really matter: either way         Wikipedia at present has this bit
    the Cognitive Biases have you             of disguised editorial (bristling
    covered, with an impressive sounding      with "citation neededs"):
    name that can be used dismissively.
                                              "... from psychology's making
                                              up of multiple opposed
                                              cognitive bias theories that
                                              can be non-falsifiably used to
       Cognitive Bias List Bias:              explain away any viewpoint."
       the tendency to think that
       an aspect of human behavior            (The two extant references
       is more significant if it              on that are remarkably
       appears in the list of                 junky, essentially a
       cognitive biases.                      handwave at Popper and, of
                                              all things, Feynman's
                                              "Surely You're Joking".)

Since the lists of biases are often in
opposing pairs then there may actually
be no overall bias:                            The ones with cutsey,
                                               folksy names reminiscent
sometimes we get things wrong, and             of the business management
sometimes it's in this direction, and          press aren't very reassuring.
sometimes it's in that other direction.


    But it could be that one is more
    common than the other.

    And it could be that there are             
    specific circumstances where one        You might object to the label     
    is more likely than the other.          "biases": the evolutionary        
                                            psych people like to argue that
                                            all human behavior must serve      
  The wikipedia article on                  some sort of evolved function,   
  Cognitive bias claims:                    thus it is likely there's some    
  "... state the content                    survival advantage to these       
  and direction of                          "biases"-- they might be better
  cognitive biases are not                  thought of as "heuristics":        
  'arbitrary'".                             short-cuts that are frequently 
                                            (but not always) very useful.     
      The provided reference:                                                
                                                                         
      Haselton et al, (2005), p 730
      "The evolution of cognitive
      bias" in "The Handbook of
      Evolutionary Psychology".



   So, a program for future (informal) study
   of the cognitive biases:

     o arrange them in opposing pairs

          o  are there different oppositions along
             different axes?
           
     o  look for alternate methods of classifying them
     
          o  perhaps many of the specific biases
             are manifestations of some larger,
             more general bias.
        
           
     o  a question about the "memory biases":
        "Are simpler things always easier
        to remember than complex things?"
     
           Some of them imply the answer
           is "no, not always"--

           But then the question would be
           "when"-- what kinds of complexity
           fits into our heads?













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