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HIROSHIMA


                                             November 25, 2006
It's a nice armchair
exercise in second
guessing and hindsight:

   "Was the use of nuclear
   weapons against Japan in
   World War II justified?"

On the one side, you get the
claim that this is another
item to add to the total of
American guilt: "the only
country to actually use
nuclear weapons".

On the other side, you get the
argument that it ended WWII
sooner, that conventional
war-- conventional bombings,                  STATEGIC_BOMBARDMENT
starvation due to blockades--
is hardly clean.

   The point is often made that *two*
   bombs were necessary to convince
   Japan to surrender: obviously they
   were a recalcitrant, determined
   enemy, still in denial about how
   badly they were losing.


My own opinion: the United States
should have attempted to demonstrate    (More recently, I've heard that the
the bomb to the Japanese, before        orignal physicists working on the
escalating to an attack on a city.      bomb had the same idea: explode over
                                        open territory first as a demo.
                                        Truman demurred.)
The scenario I'm groping toward
is something like:

  week 1: drop a bomb off the coast of japan
          100 miles south of Hiroshima                  There may be
                                                        details here
  week 2: drop a bomb 50 miles south of Hiroshima       that should be
          (in the harbor: land on all sides).           adjusted: a
                                                        forested area
  week 3: wait for surrender.  Bomb Hiroshima           might be better,
          itself only if it is not forthcoming.         to leave a scar
                                                        that can be
                                                        inspected.
The reasoning here is that the atomic bomb
was a totally new phenomena at that point,
and it didn't even seem like a human-induced
phenomena.  Even if you did believe it was
caused by a new super-weapon, you might guess          A suspicion that
that the US wouldn't even have another one             was not that far
for years.                                             wrong: bomb-grade
                                                       nuclear material
So you need at least two demonstrations that           was scare in those
*look* like a human phenomena, threatening an          days.
attack on inhabited territory
                                                           And consider that
Ideally you would add announced schedules to               the Hiroshima and
the scenario, but I presume that that would be             Nagisaki bombs
impossible without inviting fighter attacks on             were two different
the bombers.                                               designs: they
                                                           were probably
   Hitting Hiroshima shortly                               surprised that
   after announcing the threat                             they both worked.
   is probably dicey in itself.
                                                               One of the
   My presumption is that leaving                              problems with
   the time period uncertain                                   my argument
   would help.                                                 is the
                                                               assumption
                                                               that the US
    But consider the kind of state-of-mind                     side had more
    the US forces would have to possess to                     than two
    conceive and implement a plan like                         shots in its
    this:  they were engaged in an all-out                     arsenal.
    war against an aggressive, determined
    power.                                                       I actually
                                                                 don't know.
    Your own people are dying in this
    conflict, even more of *their* people
    are dying-- and yet, they don't relent.

    They're implacable, fanatic.

    They inspire suicidal devotion in
    their armed forces.



    You would need to look at this
    new weapon and immediately see
    that the world had changed; you
    would need to immediately click
    over into a new way of thinking:

         The war is already over, we
         just need to convince them
         this is so.

         It's time for compassion;
         time to begin thinking
         about rebuilding...

    That would be expecting a lot.

    My guess:

    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagisaki
    were not in any sense justified --
    but they were understandable.



                A dream worth working toward:
                someday, a government that's
                capable of that kind of
                thoughtful, restrained response.



                Reasonable without being weak.
                Strong without being evil.


                            Wise?


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