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NUCLEAR_GALLUP


                                             April 5, 2019

                          From a comment posted at reddit
                          [link]

My picture of things is this: if you hang around online,
you'll hear from people stressing out about things like       NUKES
the dangerousness of nuclear power, but there are some
signs that these people are a vocal faction that's not
necessarily representative of the public.

If you look at the gallup polls on nuclear
power, the US public remained positive on
the idea for many years-- it's only in               (July 2020)
recent years (in 2016) that the popularity            
of nuclear power has dropped below the         And since then 
half-way point.  If the main trouble was       it's bounced 
safety concerns, you would have expected it    back...
to happen earlier, say around Fukushima.

Expert analysis suggests the change in opinion has to
do with low gasoline prices (as you may note, this
makes no sense whatsoever. Welcome to America).

  Some years back, there was a TED
  debate between Stewart Brand and
  Mark Z. Jacobsen, where surveys
  before and after the debate showed
  the audience was swayed against        Since then, Jacobsen's
  nuclear.  Mark Z. Jacobsen's           studies have been shot
  schtick is not to argue "nuclear       down, and Jacobsen has
  power is dangerous", but rather to     arguably revealed
  claim that we can solve our energy     himself to be a nutjob
  problems solely with renewables        by threatening his
  (i.e. wind and solar), and he has      critics with defamation
  studies to prove it.                   law suits--


I submit that the *main* reason public opinion
of nuclear has cooled is this Jacobsen Effect--
if you're convinced it's plausible that we can
do it all with solar and wind, then what's the
point in even thinking about anything else?

It would be nice if we could just say "global
warming is a bad problem, we need to work on
anything that might help"-- after all, progress
with solar and wind is no doubt a good thing,
and even if it only contributes, say, 20% of
our energy mix, that's not nothing, so by all
means lets go for that. And see if we can push
it even higher.

But if you believe (as I do) that the
renewables enthusiasts are overstating their
case, you're stuck pointing that out: their
enthusiasm is actually the enemy of a sane
decision-making process.

This abstract of this study looks interesting:
                                  
   [link]

It's an attempt at quantifying how scared
people are of the *label* "nuclear", but it
doesn't really change my conclusion that fear
isn't the biggest factor:

  "Respondents who see the labels deploy 6.6
   percentage points less nuclear power as a
   share of the U.S. electricity mix."


                                            [link]
From the news on the gallup 2016 poll:

    "Lower gasoline prices over the past year are likely
     driving greater opposition toward the use of nuclear
     power. As Americans have paid less at the pump,
     their level of worry about the nation's energy
     situation has dropped to 15-year-low levels.

    "This appears to have resulted in more Americans
     prioritizing environmental protection and fewer
     backing nuclear power as an alternative energy
     source."


From a more extensive write-up:

"The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 2016
edited by Frank Newport"

[link]

     "The increase in the share of Americans-- both
     Republican and Democrat-- preferring an
     alternative energy strategy in 2016 coincides
     with an oil supply surplus that has caused fuel
     prices to plummet.  High fuel costs may prime
     American consumers to prefer increased production
     of oil and gas as a means to alleviate burdensome
     prices at the pump."


     Later in the book:

      "o  Opposition to fracking rises to 51% from 40% in 2015
                                                              
       o  Drop in fracking mirrors American's turn
          away from nuclear energy 

       o  Republicans fuel drop in support for fracking"




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