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HIROSHIMA


                                             November 25, 2006

It's a nice armchair
exercise in second
guessing and hindsight: 

   "Was the use of nuclear 
   weapons against Japan in
   World War II justified?"       

On the one side, you get the
claim that this is another
item to add to the total of
American guilt: "the only
country to actually use
nuclear weapons".
   
On the other side, you get the 
argument that it ended WWII 
sooner, that conventional 
war-- conventional bombings,                  STATEGIC_BOMBARDMENT 
starvation due to blockades-- 
is hardly clean. 
 
   The point is often made that *two*
   bombs were necessary to convince  
   Japan to surrender: obviously they 
   were a recalcitrant, determined   
   enemy, still in denial about how  
   badly they were losing.           
   
               
My own opinion: the United States
should have attempted to demonstrate
the bomb to the Japanese, before
escalating to an attack on a city.


The scenario I'm groping toward
is something like:

  week 1: drop a bomb off the coast of japan
          100 miles south of Hiroshima                  There may be
                                                        details here
  week 2: drop a bomb 50 miles south of Hiroshima       that should be
          (in the harbor: land on all sides).           adjusted: a
                                                        forested area
  week 3: wait for surrender.  Bomb Hiroshima           might be better, 
          itself only if it is not forthcoming.         to leave a scar 
                                                        that can be
                                                        inspected.
The reasoning here is that the atomic bomb
was a totally new phenomena at that point,
and it didn't even seem like a human-induced
phenomena.  Even if you did believe it was
caused by a new super-weapon, you might guess          A suspicion that
that the US wouldn't even have another one             was not that far
for years.                                             wrong: bomb-grade
                                                       nuclear material
So you need at least two demonstrations that           was scare in those
*look* like a human phenomena, threatening an          days.
attack on inhabited territory
                                                           And consider that
Ideally you would add announced schedules to               the Hiroshima and
the scenario, but I presume that that would be             Nagisaki bombs
impossible without inviting fighter attacks on             were two different
the bombing planes.                                        designs: they
                                                           were probably
   Hitting Hiroshima shortly after                         surprised that
   announcing the threat is                                they both worked.
   probably be dicey in itself.                                   
                                                               One of the 
   My presumption is that leaving                              problems with 
   the time period uncertain                                   my argument 
   would help.                                                 is the 
                                                               assumption 
                                                               that the US 
    But consider the kind of state-of-mind                     side had more 
    the US forces would have to possess to                     than two 
    conceive and implement a plan like                         shots in its 
    this:  they were engaged in an all-out                     arsenal.     
    war against an aggressive, determined                              
    power.                                                       I actually 
                                                                 don't know.
    Your own people are dying in this          
    conflict, even more of *their* people    
    are dying -- and yet, they don't           
    relent.                                  
                                          
    They're implacable, fanatic.         
    
    They inspire suicidal devotion in     
    their armed forces.                  
                                           
                       
       
    You would need to look at this new weapon     
    and immediately see that the world had    
    changed and click over into a new way of     
    thinking:                                    
                
         The war is already over, we               
         just need to convince them          
         this is so.                
                                            
         It's time for compassion;           
         time to begin thinking              
         about rebuilding...        
                                             
    That's expecting a lot.
           
    The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagisaki        
    were not in any sense justified --        
    but they were understandable.        
                                     


                A dream worth working toward:
                someday, a government that's
                capable of that kind of thoughtful,
                restrained response.


                Reasonable without being weak.
                Strong without being evil.


                            Wise?


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