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H.G. Wells and the _Outline of History_ 

H.G. Wells, in his "Outline of          SCALE 
History", around p. 815 (of the                                        
3rd edition) discusses the                                             
conclusion of Gibbon's "The                                             
Decline and Fall of the Roman                                             
Empire".  
   
Wells uses Gibbon as                         
an example of the                         There's some irony in this in    
blindness of the men                      that Wells "Outline" can also     
of his class and                          be used this way...            ARYAN    
times.              
 
Gibbon, writing around 1780,              Wells, writing around 1920 in    
wonders if the British Empire             his final chapter "The Next      
could fall just as Rome fell:             Stage of History" argues that    
                                          a world government is            
"Europe is now divided                    necessary and desireable.        
into twelve powerful, though                                              
unequal kingdoms, three                                    WORLDGOV       
respectable commonwealths, and a                                          
variety of smaller, though                                                
independent, states; the chances                                          
of royal and ministerial talents           According to Wells,           
are multiplied, at least with the          Gibbon is a "gentleman"        
number of its rulers....  The              who expects that all rulers    
abuses of tyranny are restrained           will naturally be "gentlemen",
by the mutual influence and fear           by the nature of things.      
of shame; republics have acquired                                        
order and stability; monarchies                                          
have imbibed the principles of                                           
freedom, or, at least, of       
moderation; and some sense of   
honour and justice is introduced           Wells chides Gibbon for     
into the most defective                    being blind to the internal 
constitutions by the general               pressures building up that  
manner of the times.  In peace,            would lead to the conflicts 
the progress of knowledge and              between the rulers and the  
industry is accelerated by the             ruled.                      
emulation of so many active                                            
rivals: in war, the European               And further: "Gibbon forgets 
forces are exercised by temperate          here that cannon and the 
and undecisive contests."                  fundamentals of modern 
                                           military method came to 
                                           Europe with the Mongols." 
                                                                       
"Europe is secure from any future                                          
irruption of Barbarians; since,             Common wishful thinking in      
before they can conquer, they must          SF: anyone advanced enough    
cease to be barbarous..."                   to cross interstellar space     
                                            will be socially advanced enough
                                            to treat us better than we've   
                                            treated "inferior" cultures in  
                                            the past.  
                                            
                                                 "The Day the Earth Stood Still"


An important lesson, I think, of the "Outline":
                                               

"History has never gone simply                       
forward."       p. 1091                                                      
                                                                               
   The curve of history is not                    
   smooth.  Extrapolating from                                 
   current conditions is      
   always dangerous, since    
   they may be a minor        
   deviation from the broad   
   trend.                     
                              
         
         Two centuries elapsed     
         between Roger Bacon that  
         Sir Francis Bacon. Two    
         centuries between the idea 
         of science and it's       
         popularization.           
                                   
            If Roger Bacon had to
            wait that long, how  
            can I complain if    
            humanity seems to be 
            sleepwalking?        

                                     
"One cannot foretell the 
surprises or disappointments the
future has in store."   p. 1100 
                                        
"It may be that 'private                       The lesson of service?
enterprise' will refuse                        How exactly should an 
to learn the lesson of                         enlightened capitalist 
service without some                           behave?                 
quite catastrophic                                         Current libertarian 
revolution, and that a                  This, seems        thought would be    
phase of confiscation and               all too            that this           
amateurish socialistic                  prophetic.         enlightenment,     
government lies before us."                                this altruism,     
                                                           should be          
                                                           unnecessary.       
"Human history becomes more      Oft quoted.               
and more a race between          Like Fuller's             
education and catastrophe."      Choice between                        
                                 "Utopia or Oblivion"
"Yet clumsily or smoothly,                           
the world, it seems,                   
progresses and will                    
progress."                             

                                       

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