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SPORTS_LOGIC
June 24, 2004
One of the things that I learned from
going to Stanford Volley Ball games was Volleyball is a huge
that the fans didn't regard cheering for sport at Stanford.
their team as anything as simple as a A game might have
spontaneous display of emotion. They thousands of spectators
regarded it as a requirement: it was crowding the lower tiers
their duty to inspire the home team, up to the ceiling, a
and psyche out the opposition. total wall of humanity.
When the drums of war There was this one In comparison, if
are pounding, and men's volleyball you got Fred
public opinion polls game that had to be Frith to play on
repeatedly report huge played in the "Old campus you'd be
approval ratings for Pavillion", which lucky to get a few
our boy in office and was so small that hundred people.
his wounderful the bleachers
military undertakings, practically went
the left has a way of right up to the court.
responding with
anguished, outraged Some of the Stanford
disbelief. When they guys seated near me were
speak up on the using this as an
subject, they hear opportunity to whisper
things like "Support in the ear of the server
our troops!" from the opposite
team: "*Waaayne*, we're
If you find this *looooking* at you... is
remark baffling, your ass getting hot?"
consider the Stanford
volleyball fans.
Also, you should realize that
this attitude is not, in fact,
the stupidiest thing in the
world.
What war is really about is pushing
the other side into a situation where
they feel like they need to surrender.
They're quite capable of watching
reports of demonstrations on CNN and
reading poll results in the New York
Times.
If they get the feeling that
the US citizens don't back the
war effort, they might actually
hang on and fight it out longer
in hopes that we'll back down.
So going around talking loudly about
how great the war is might *really*
help support the troops. This attitude does indeed pose
some problems for the nature of
But this means that the political discourse in an open,
"rally round the flag democratic society...
effect", is not not at
all reliable.
The people are lying to the
pollsters, who are essentially
regarded as enemy spies.
And in the current situation, where you've
got the nation at war, and the incumbent
only slightly ahead in the polls, that's
*seriously* bad news for the incumbent.
So one more pre-
election prediction:
Kerry (or more
accurately "Anybody But
Bush") is going to do
suprisingly well, in Nov 12, 2004:
contradiction to the
polls right up to the Wrong again!
eve of the election. That's a shock,
eh?
With any luck, what will
happen is that the
pre-election polls will
show a slight advantage
to Bush, and Kerry will
win with a landslide;
and people will stop
taking these silly polls
quite so seriously.
But: all of the above
presumes that the
situation with the (Unfortunately,
Diebold voting machines I might have
isn't much worse than I been wrong about
think it is. this, too.)
It's widely understood
that these things are a
total joke, and yet
there are evidentally
some states that are
still planning on using
these things in
November.
Anyway: you shouldn't be
tremendously surprised at the Nov 12, 2004:
kind of thing that happened to
Bush Senior... record approval They learned their
ratings during wartime, lesson and made
followed by being voted out of sure we were *still*
office shortly thereafter. at war during the
election?
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