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SPORTS_LOGIC

                                   June 24, 2004
   
One of the things that I learned from    
going to Stanford Volley Ball games was         Volleyball is a huge
that the fans didn't regard cheering for        sport at Stanford.
their team as anything as simple as a           A game might have
spontaneous display of emotion.  They           thousands of spectators
regarded it as a requirement: it was            crowding the lower tiers
their duty to inspire the home team,            up to the ceiling, a
and psyche out the opposition.                  total wall of humanity.
                              
When the drums of war       There was this one              In comparison, if
are pounding, and           men's volleyball                you got Fred
public opinion polls        game that had to be             Frith to play on
repeatedly report huge      played in the "Old              campus you'd be
approval ratings for        Pavillion", which               lucky to get a few
our boy in office and       was so small that               hundred people.
his wounderful              the bleachers         
military undertakings,      practically went      
the left has a way of       right up to the court.
responding with
anguished, outraged               Some of the Stanford
disbelief.  When they             guys seated near me were
speak up on the                   using this as an
subject, they hear                opportunity to whisper
things like "Support              in the ear of the server
our troops!"                      from the opposite       
                                  team: "*Waaayne*, we're   
   If you find this               *looooking* at you... is    
   remark baffling,               your ass getting hot?"
   consider the Stanford
   volleyball fans.

Also, you should realize that
this attitude is not, in fact,
the stupidiest thing in the
world.
   
What war is really about is pushing   
the other side into a situation where 
they feel like they need to surrender.
They're quite capable of watching     
reports of demonstrations on CNN and  
reading poll results in the New York  
Times.                                
   
If they get the feeling that      
the US citizens don't back the   
war effort, they might actually    
hang on and fight it out longer
in hopes that we'll back down.  

So going around talking loudly about
how great the war is might *really*
help support the troops.                   This attitude does indeed pose
                                           some problems for the nature of
   But this means that the                 political discourse in an open,
   "rally round the flag                   democratic society...
   effect", is not not at 
   all reliable.          
   
      The people are lying to the
      pollsters, who are essentially
      regarded as enemy spies.



And in the current situation, where you've
got the nation at war, and the incumbent
only slightly ahead in the polls, that's
*seriously* bad news for the incumbent.

So one more pre-
election prediction:

Kerry (or more
accurately "Anybody But
Bush") is going to do
suprisingly well, in             Nov 12, 2004:
contradiction to the
polls right up to the            Wrong again!
eve of the election.             That's a shock,
                                 eh?
With any luck, what will
happen is that the
pre-election polls will
show a slight advantage
to Bush, and Kerry will
win with a landslide;
and people will stop
taking these silly polls
quite so seriously.

   
  But: all of the above           
  presumes that the                   
  situation with the               (Unfortunately,    
  Diebold voting machines          I might have     
  isn't much worse than I          been wrong about
  think it is.                     this, too.)     
                                                       
  It's widely understood           
  that these things are a                     
  total joke, and yet            
  there are evidentally  
  some states that are            
  still planning on using  
  these things in        
  November.              
            
Anyway: you shouldn't be      
tremendously surprised at the      Nov 12, 2004:
kind of thing that happened to
Bush Senior... record approval     They learned their
ratings during wartime,            lesson and made
followed by being voted out of     sure we were *still*
office shortly thereafter.         at war during the
                                   election?

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