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PETERING_OUT

                                             November 26, 2023

I was wondering recently if there was any
good evidence for the "Peter Principle"--         "The Peter Principle" was the idea
                                                  that incompetence was widespread
                                                  because of a quirk of hierarchies:
    The Peter Principle has a                     if you're good at your job, you're
    certain cynical appeal going                  promoted, though you won't
    for it, but in retrospect, it                 necessarily be good at the new job.
    seems like it's premises are
    naive.  The entire idea that                      But if you're *not* good at it
    "competence" is the main                          you're unlikely to be so bad at
    criteria for promotion seems                      it that you'll be fired.
    suspect.
                                                         And so: "everyone rises to
      Another answer for                                 their level of incompetence".
      "why is there so
      much incompetence?"
      might be that                             Though, it could be the
      competence is                             Peter Principle is
      difficult to                              repairable by just
      determine and so                          reframing it slightly:
      hiring and                                you're allowed to change
      promotions are often                      jobs if you meet with
      decided by factors                        general approval, but if      And that
      like affinity tests                       that approval evaporates      "general
      or corruption:                            for any reason-- without      approval"
                                                quite turning into            might be
      Racism and sexism;                        widespread disapproval--      a judgement
      or nepotism and                           you'll be allowed to stay     of people
      bribery...                                in place.                     *above* you
                                                                              in the
                                                                              hierarchy
                                                People shuffle                but not
                                                around until                  necessarily.
                                                they're met with
If you're interested in                         low-grade
whether an organization                         disapproval.
as a whole is acting
effectively, there's a                             Whether that's precisely
question of competence                             because of "incompetence"
at judging competence.                             is another question.

Any promotion system with
any degree of flaws in it
risks compromising the                     Looking at someone else's notes--
class of people judging                    I wrote this from memory-- I see
competence, you can get a                  Peter covered some of the issues,
bad situation spiraling                    discussing the problem of incompetence
out-of-control...                          at judging competence, perverse
                                           preferences for the not-too-competent,
    Something I think I was watching       and so on.
    in action at the Stanford
    Materials Science Department in                  [ref]
    the 90s, where the old guard was
    recruiting a new guard of guys
    just like themselves.


    Judging "competence" can be
    extremely tricky: e.g. someone
    might be competent under one set of
    circumstances but not another, and
    if the situation changes suddenly
    and a formerly competent person is
    now in over their heads, the odds
    are there's going to be some delay
    in recognizing and dealing with the
    situation.

    We judge competence based on a
    perception of whether
    individual characteristics are
    appropriate for the current
    circumstances, and that
    perception is always going to
    lag behind reality.

       The perception may also be based on
       flawed rules-of-thumb if not out-right
       myths and preconceptions.



  One of Peter's more interesting points
  was based on the claim that it's
  dangerous to simply turn down a
  promotion-- the reaction of everyone,
  including friends and loved-ones
  is likely to be tremendously negative,
  creating a stressful situation.

     He argued instead that if you're were
     happy in your current position, you
     should intentionally display some
     eccentricity-- which he called                   In a footnote, Peter
     "creative incompetence", in keeping              allowed for the
     with his meritocratic framing--                  possibility that some
     that would discourage anyone from                might be so extremly
     offering you a promotion.                        competent they have no
                                                      "level of incompetence".
                    (April 2025)
        Interestingly, I don't                        He offered JFK as
        think Peter offered any                       a possible example.
        advice at the
        organizational level to                                     Ah, Camelot.
        fix promotion polices.
        Peter's Principle was
        regarded as a given, an                         JFK did okay, e.g. with
        inevitable result of                            the "Cuban Missle
        meritocratic hierarchies.                       Crisis", but I'd suggest
                                                        if he was *perfectly*
          One thought: assignment of                    competent he might've
          responsibilities is actually                  been more careful about
          somewhat fluid-- there's a                    assassination attempts.
          something like a tradition of
          certain functions be                             Even Mike Pence
          connected to positions and                       knew better than to
          titles, but really sometimes                     blindly trust the
          middle-level manager A gets                      Secret Service.
          to do a particular job, and
          sometimes it's B--

          That gives you room to experimentally
          juggle responsibilties, finding a          Peter suggested that the
          "level of competence" the employee         rot takes time to set in--
          is comfortable with without needing        competent work can be done
          to engage in the indignity of an           by employees who haven't
          explicit demotion.                         yet been promoted too
                                                     far-- which suggests that
                                                     *starting over again*
                                                     could be an effective
                                                     strategy.

                                             E.g. Competition between firms,
                                             with start-ups occasionally
                                             unseating the reining giants.

                                       That pattern of fixing a problem by
                                       forming a new department could actually
                                       be effective, at least temporarily-- got
                                       safety problems?  Form a Safety Group.
                                       Already had a Safety Group?  Form yet
                                       another, call it something else, like
                                       the Safety Audit Team.

                                               Eventually though, the multiple
                                               layers will get unwieldy.

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