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WARMING_TO_NUKES


                                                     July 11, 2020

                                           https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/03/12/climate-change-very-hot-year/
In a recent issue of the New York          (possibly paywalled)
Review of books, Bill McKibben
came out in favor of nuclear
power-- or more precisely, in
favor of not rushing to shut down
existing nukes before there's some    Does that sound obvious?  If we've been
clean alternative in place.           safely operating a nuclear plant for
                                      decades, keeping it going for another
                                      ten years if at all possible would seem
                                      like a good move, if we're (supposedly)
                                      desperately concerned about reducing
                                      our green-house gas emissions.

                                            But both California and New York
                                            are getting this wrong: they're
                                            planning on shutting down both
                                            Diablo Canyon and Indian Point...

    Bill McKibben wrote:

   "We'd probably be well advised to keep current
    nuclear power plants operating where it's
    relatively safe to do so until they can be
    replaced with renewables instead of natural
    gas-- though at the moment new nuclear power
    is ruinously expensive in most places,
    existing plants are an important part of the
    low-carbon power supply."

       My first impulse is to object to the phrase
       "ruinously expensive", but the surrounding
       caveats are interesting-- if it's only
       the case in "most places", I would want
       to know what they're doing right in those
       *other* places, and the phrase "at the
       moment" sounds like a concession that this
       may very well be a fixable problem...


    "A good summary of the problem came in 2018
    from the Union of Concerned Scientists"

       Nice to have a reference, though something
       a little more detailed would be nice.


    "We definitely need to avoid not only natural
    gas, which as I have explained previously in
    these pages is not the 'bridge fuel' its
    proponents contended,"

       Which is almost certainly true-- I'll
       have to look up McKibben's previous       Briefly, (1) "natural gas"
       nyr pieces to see if his reasoning        is not "clean", just
       agrees with mine-                         cleaner-- past estimates
                                                 had it half as bad as
                                                 coal, but that's still bad;
                                                 (2) there's reason to think
                                                 we're *leaking* a lot of
                                                 uncombusted natural gas
                                                 (in part, thanks to fracking)
                                                 which means it's GHG footprint
                                                 is worse than we used to think.

    "but also the burning of trees to generate
    electricity--"

       So McKibben has indeed concluded he was
       wrong about biomass, but the claim that
       this is attributable to the "Planet of           AFTER_THE_HUMAN_PLANET
       the Humans" film is itself provably wrong.
       
    "... the latest science is showing this so
    called biomass energy to be more of a problem    I thought this might
    than a solution,"                                be a case where
                                                     McKibben was
       You have to love phrases like "the            influenced by the
       latest science" used without any              "Planet of the Humans"
       further attribution.  The piece in            doc, but actually he
       grist has no scientific cites either,         got there in 2016:
       but it makes it clear McKibben now
       believes you can't grow trees fast            [link]
       enough to make biomass carbon neutral.
       (I would think the relevent question          "But as scientists did
       would be how much land it would take.)        begin to do the math,
                                                     a different truth
    "and that by contrast letting mature trees       emerged: Burning trees
    continue to grow allows them to soak up          put a puff of carbon
    large amounts of carbon.                         into air now, which is
                                                     when the climate
       I can't say I follow why that would be,       system is breaking.
       if you're burning more than a year's          That this carbon may
       growth per year, that's a problem, if         be sucked up a
       not biomass really could be carbon-neutral    generation hence is
       as promised.                                  therefore not much
                                                     help ..."

                                                      I continue to
         So, now that Bill McKibben has               wonder how it
         come out as a pro-non-anti-nuke              could be the
         (or something), will the usual               I.P.C.C.
         suspects also moderate their                 neglected to do
         stance?                                      this "math".

         If past experience is any guide,
         they will instead throw Bill
         McKibben under the bus-- a small
         sacrifice to avoid heresy against
         the anti-nuclear faith.


         Bill McKibben better step carefully.
         He could already be banned at /r/energy.




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