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February 20, 2007
July 15, 2007
Kevin Drum, "Politcal Animal",
November 11, 2004:
"Finally, you have to posit a way in which
the Bush campaign was able to rig the TOO_MANY_ACTORS
results in every single battleground
state. Let's face it: it's a lot easier to
think of ways in which the exit polls
might be screwed up than to think up
credible ways in which the Bushies could
have pulled that off."
I still don't understand this...
The proposed scenario is that the electronic
machines were rigged by a handful of players
working inside the two major electronic
voting machine companies, which have
(a) known-Republican sympathies, and
(b) connections to each other (two
brothers are high up in the management
chain of ES&S and Diebold).
I could be convinced that this scenario is wrong,
by why is it so hard for people to grasp it?
Trying to explain why exit polls might
be way off strikes me as much harder...
The "reluctant Bush respondant" theory (the
idea that Bush voters don't like talking to LAST_EXIT_FOR_DEMOCRACY
pollsters) has many, many problems...
Let's say that there really is
some odd socio-psychological
phenomena that explains away
the patterns in the exit-poll
You wouldn't have But when new methods
expected that phenomena of undetected cheating
to exist if you hadn't become possible, (July 15, 2007)
seen the discrepancies wouldn't you expect
first, would you? that at some point Quasi-scientific
someone would take approach:
advantage of them?
Pretend that you
had been making
On the one hand, a strange, hypotheses in
totally unexpected phenomena, advance of looking
on the other hand, a suggestion at the evidence.
that the inevitable might have
happened sooner rather than later.
If you take an innocent-until-proven-guilty
attitude toward these machines,
then there *is no check* on the system.
Every discrepancy can be shrugged
off by peculiar quirks of crowd
behavior, and if so we will just
go along believing whatever we
want to believe.
This is no way to run a Democracy.
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