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                                             May  9, 2008

                                             BLACK_SWAN

According to Taleb (p.210-211),
we can't know the probabilities,
but we can estimate the magnitudes             (Sounds a bit like
of the effects, and use those                  Peter Schwartz on
to make intelligent decisions.                 scenario planning.)

Does that make any sense at all?

How do you choose which events
to evaluate, if you don't
consider probabilities?

Why worry more about
earthquake than
asteroid impact?

   What's the difference?  Huge.
   One is likely to hit particular
   places, the other could strike
   anywhere, and possibly
   everywhere.  The energy involved
   in both could be enormous, but
   the asteroid impact is
   potentially many orders larger.
   The darkest of Black Swans.

   But earthquakes would seem to be
   more likely, since they're part
   of the historical record, and
   large asteroid impacts are
   recorded largely only in the
   geological record.

          Should the San
          Franciscan worry more
          about asteroids than
          earthquakes?







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