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RISK_ASSESSMENT


                                              February 11, 2007

       [ref]

According to an article on "networkworld.com",
Bruce Schneier states that we often "exaggerate
risks that are -- ":
                                               (formatting mine)
          spectacular
          rare
          beyond their control
          talked about
          international
          man-made
          immediate
          directed against children
          morally offensive

Risks are downplayed if they are:

          pedestrian
          common
          more under their control
          not discussed
          natural
          long-term
          evolving slowly
          affecting others


Other known human mental biases:

    "optimism bias -- we tend to think we'll be
                      luckier than the rest."                ODDS_ARE


    "vividness" --    the most vivid memory, the "most
                      available" one, is the "worst memory"


    "anchoring" --    a tendency to obsess about one thing
                      (a recent thought,
                      a suggestion from elsewhere)           This is the
                                                             standard name,
                                                             but it's
                                                             terrible.

                                                             I can never
                                                             remember what
                                                             it means.

                                                             And this was
                                                             invented by
                                                             someone who
                                                             claims to
                                                             understand
                                                             human
                                                             cognition.

                                                             "single pointed"
                                                             "mono-focus"
                                                             "tunnel vision"


    And there are of course many a list out
    there for people who like lists:

       [ref]
       [ref]



   There's nothing controversial about any of
   this material.  Everyone knows that human
   beings have these broken perceptions of
   risk, and we can all think of examples of
   each of these points...

   We nod and smile, and then go back to our
   regularly scheduled panic reactions.



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