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SAN_FRANCISCO_DREAMING

                                             March 26, 2008

                                             BLACK_SWAN
On occasion I hear people
say things like "you can't
lose money investing in
San Francisco real estate."                 I once overheard a smarmy
                                            real estate agent opining
But...                                      "San Francisco is a *brand*!"

What if while SF prices never drop          Okay.  But brands can
very much, they don't climb as              become "diluted" and the
much as prices in Oakland: you may          powers-that-be in SF seem
pay a heavy "opportunity cost" for          far more interested in
buying one property in SF as                short-term exploitation
opposed to three in the East bay.           than they are in defending
                                            the quality of the brand.

What if you sink all of your                   What if another decade of
wealth into a single SF                        exploitation of the hot
property and it gets trashed                   housing market results in
in an earthquake?                              so many boring, trashy,
                                               neighborhood-destroying
   Of what if you've paid for some             buildings that it finally
   earthquake insurance (very expensive        sours people on the very
   in California), and we go for               idea of living in San
   another 100 years without a big             Francisco?
   quake?
                                                  "You live in SF?  You
   Or what if we *do* have an                     didn't buy one of those
   earthquake, but the                            godawful 'luxury'
   insurance company declares                     condos in the towers
   bankruptcy when confronted                     from hell, did you?
   by an actual earthquake?                       Don't want to sell out
                                                  now because you don't
                                                  want to admit how big
                                                  the loss was, eh?  Ha!"

                                                  There are too many people
                                                  out there who think that
                                                  "San Francisco will always
                                                  be San Francisco", who see
                                                  no need to think about what
                                                  made it San Francisco, and
                                                  no reason to worry about
                                                  what might unmake it.
       What if the surrounding
       cities get a clue and switch                   The idea that nothing
       to high density/small                          can ever dent San
       scale/multiple-use zoning                      Francisco's popularity
       regs that let them become New                  may be the thing that
       San Franciscos all on their                    eventually does it in.
       own?
                                                          Pride goeth...
          JANE_JACOBS





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