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TALEB


                                          May  9, 2008

                                          BLACK_SWAN

Taleb is a slippery customer.

He makes a huge number of mistakes, but
they're usually only incidental issues
and I imagine if you tried to make a big
deal about this, he'd just accuse you of
being a quibbling nerd.

   But then, he himself comes
   down awfully hard on the New       Yes I know: pity
   York Times reviewer (Gregg         the poor NYT-wit.     What is the quantum
   Easterbrook) who missed a                                of violin size?
   footnote explaining a trick
   Taleb pulled (inventing a
   fictional author to write
   about).

        That bit is from
        Taleb's web site:

        [ref]



Taleb ducks back and forth a lot:
He gets up a head of steam, ranting
in a particular direction, but
stops to throw in just enough
qualifiers and denials that if you                 He shows a funny
were to accuse him of going that                   syndrome of leading
way, he'd file a counter-charge                    his sentences with
that you're exaggerating,                          connecting clauses
over-simplifying, or perhaps worst                 that don't work.
of all, being "Platonic".
                                                   "Simply," followed by
                                                   something that isn't.
               PLATONIC_HATE
                                                   "To summarize," followed
                                                   by a repetition that's
                                                   no shorter.
     At least you can't accuse him
     of being lukewarm: any name                   "To repeat," followed
     he drops he either worships                   by something that isn't
     or reviles.                                   a repetition.

     He's either kissing feet,
     of spitting on heads, there's
     no in-between with him.


    Let us consider the tale of a
    "fictional" trader, from p.98:

    "He made sure after a long string of
    losses, that they did not think he was
    apologetic-- indeed, paradoxically, they
    became more supportive that way.  Humans
    will believe anything you say provided
    you do not exhibit the smallest shadow of
    diffidence; like animals, they can detect
    the smallest crack in your confidence
    before you express it. ...  The trick is
    to be as smooth as possible in personal
    manners.  It is much easier to signal
    self-confidence if you are exceedingly
    polite and friendly; you can control
    people without having to offend their         There is no question in my
    sensitivity.  The problem with business       mind that this is essentially
    people, Nero realized, is that if you act     correct.  The question that
    like a loser they will treat you as a         arises is do you really want
    loser ..."                                    to resort to these tactics?

       I submit that this is                      Do you really want to
       Taleb being upfront                        associate with people who
       about his tactics, and I                   are impressed by these
       suggest that he writes                     maneuvers?
       in much the same spirit.
       His tone of certainly is                 Speaking for myself, someone
       nearly always pure                       coming on like this might
       bluster.                                 impress me briefly, but only
                                                briefly: very quickly they're
         There's no point in trying             going to get refiled under
         to argue him around on any             the "con-artist" label.
         detail, because as a matter
         of principle-- or rather,              Now, there's no particular
         tactics-- he won't back down           reason why you should want
         on any point.                          to live your life to impress
                                                me-- but why would you want
                                                to live your life to impress
                                                fools?

                                                            What will it do
                                                            to your own
                                                            self-respect to
                                                            live this way?

Just as I was beginning to                                  MASKS
read "The Black Swan", I
was getting the feeling
that Taleb is a bit of
charlatan, with defenses
set-up in advance on all
lines of attack --

On the one hand, one must
distrust appearances, on
the other hand, one must
avoid delving into
essences (the "Platonic").

                                   PRIMITIVE_BIOLOGY

To rise above our animal nature,
we must avoid narrative                  (Animals are well known
                                         for their story-telling
And we must learn to avoid               abilities.)
nerdy obsessions.

          (Animals are well
          known for wasting time          Chimps may
          on mathematics.)                be good chess
                                          players, but
                                          for business
                                          decisions you
                                          need someone
                                          from Brooklyn.




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