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GUILLEN_2030
March 23, 2023
"2030" (2020)
"How today's Biggest Trends Will Collide
and Reshape the Future of Everything."
by Mauro F. Guillén
A book published in 2020 making Bold Claims about
what the world of 2030 is going to be like, which
brings to mind the old L. Sprague de Camp remark
"It does not pay for a prophet to be too specific."
Last chapter on Bitcoin.
Afterword: "Oops, pandemic!"
Despite having bright flashing warning lights all over it,
I don't have much trouble flipping through this book
without taking it too seriously. It's so obviously dorky
in a Wired-magazine sort of way that I don't expect much
from it. The dumb bits don't surprise, and hence don't
leave me ranting at the stupidity.
Compare this to my
Leading the dumb parade reactions to "System
at present: Error", which is a SYSTEM_ERROR
book that *should*
"[Cities] also disproportionately be better than it
contribute to global warming with is, and kept
their closely packed buildings provoking me to
and surfaces paved with asphalt write half-baked
and concrete, which trap more rants I had to tone
heat-- a process known as the down or throw away.
'heat island effect'."
Really, people who live in
cities have lower carbon
footprints because of heating This bit, and the surrounding
and cooling efficiencies that material, had me feeling like I
come from higher housing was dealing with a suburban
density, plus much less apologist--
reliance on private cars.
"In fact, many big cities in the
Urban heat islands are real, and world have become dehumanized,
local temperatures near cities soulless and alienating." p. 137
are higher than the surrounding
region-- but the main impact this But there's other material that
has on "global warming" is you seems more positive on things
need to be very careful in urban, notably a discussion of
interpeting temperature data or Richard Florida's claims that a
you may see artifacts of weather key feature of cities is
station locations-- "tolerance".
Living in a city does not at all FLORIDA_TOLERANCE
make your net impact on global
warming larger.
One of the author's Bold Claims is that
Africa is soon going to become an
economic power house-- now, if *I* were
going to argue in that direction, I would AFRICA_FUTURISM
point at the recent breakthroughs in
malaria vaccines and I would be speculating
about ways the transportation issues in If Africa had a
sub-sahara Africa could be addressed. Mississippi river, it
would already be an
Neither issue is mentioned by the author economic power house.
here. His sole arugment is based on
population trends and the conviction that (Dirigible drones for
human beings are more of an asset than a cargo transport, solar
liability. powered for extra
trendiness. You heard
And actually, I think this it here first.)
is true *in general*, but
using a model of the world
economy that's based only
on one parameter is pretty
dubious. What happened to
trend interactions?
There are occasional bursts of what
at least looks like rigor in this
book, but they're not sustained. The
arguments based on trendline data
blend into quotations of the opinion
of someone famous, alternating with a
handful of business success
case-studies that supposedly show a
general point, but aren't at all
comprehensive enough-- the author is Of the trends under consideration
a business school guy, so you can't here, few are political trends.
expect much beyond business press
writing. One exception: he mentions a trend
toward the young working in the gig
economy without home ownership,
and questions whether their political
engagement will go up or down.
Without coming to a conclusion,
of course. The market will go
up, unless it comes down.
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