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KSR_2312


                                             February 6, 2018
                                             March   20, 2018

Kim Stanley Robinson's "2312" (2012)

At Charles Stross's blog the subject of world-building  
in Science Fiction came up, and a martin089 brought up
the book 2312:

    "What do people make of Kim Stanley Robinsons
    worldbuilding? I struggled to understand the
    economy in 2312, allthough it is explained
    somewhat - I got the feeling KSR himself was
    fuzzy on that: It's described as mostly
    planned economies off earth, with capitalism
    a somewhat marginal, dangerous hobby for
    some. Ok, how exactly is that meant to work?
    With no separation of producer and means of
    production, what is this capitalism?"



The "world-building" underlying 2312 has big problems.

Global warming has led to rising sea levels and resource
shortage wars.  We're shown a New York City that's adapted
and become a new Venice.  Most of Florida is under water
now-- work has just begun on trying to build it up again.
Displaced refugees are still a problem.

But after only 70 years of these troubles, the human race
moved out into space, building *space elevators*, no less.
Seriously?

Then after developing some impressive space industrial capabilities
they *don't* use this technology to reverse the effects of global
warming: builing a sun shield at the L1 point would be an obvious
thing to do, and KSR definitely knows about that idea-- there's one
in use on Venus as part of a terraforming effort.

He attempts to cover this in a few ways, but none are convincing:

  o  many people like the present state of the earth,
     e.g. they find the new canals of Manhatten very
     charming.  The phrase "fortunate flood" is supposed
     to be a cliche (?).

  o  they're supposed to be very gun shy about terraforming
     Earth after some early screw-ups that created a little     Such things
     ice age.                                                   are certainly
                                                                a risk, e.g.
                                                                from blowing
                                                                sulfides into
                                                                the upper
                                                                atmosphere.

                                                                No one sane
                                                                wants to try
                                                                these things--
                                                                but we're
                                                                on that track.

                                                                Nothing else
                                                                is being done
                                                                fast enough.



Multiple things in Robinson's 2312
scenario are hard to believe:

   o  An elaborate space transit infrastructure
      involving space elevators and O'Neill-style     RIDE_A_COMET
      habitats that get used as transportation
      (somehow)--

   o  The town of Terminator on Mercury that
      supposedly coasts along on steel rails,
      powered entirely by thermal expansion...

   o  The landscape of equatorial Mercury which
      is somehow rough and craggy despite the       I should read up on current
      incessant sun-blasting it receives...         thinking on this, though...

(But then, at least there's no damn artificial gravity,
or for that matter faster-than-light travel.)

Economics in 2312:

For some time now Kim Stanley Robinson
has been working on some ideas based        ANARCHIC_ROBINSON
on a (perhaps idealized) view of the
social process of science.

He makes the point that scientists are
motivated far more by peer-group
approval if not out-right selfless          That profit-motive is presumed by
altruism rather than the profit-motive.     our libertarian friends to be the
                                            only way to get anything done, but
                                            KSR points to Science as a
                                            counter-example.


In the 2312 timeline:
                                           (I have the feeling that the 2312
The settlement of Mars was one of          timeline is not quite the same as
the early forays into space, and           the "Green Mars", but I could be
it was handled on a model much             wrong: it's roughly similar.)
like scientific bases on
Antarctica-- this set the tone
for much of what was done in
space afterwards.

Now there's an alliance of many
(but not all) of the settlements
called the Mondragon Accord that
does not use market-based
resource allocation, but instead
uses some sort of computer-AI to        Yes: let's put the economy under the
do the job...                           control of a google/facebook
                                        algorithm... what could go wrong?
We don't see too much of how this
actually works... no one seems to           By the way: in the real world,
worry about the cost of anything,           back in the early 70s, there was a
and in general there seems to be a          hot shot in Operations Research
presumption that at any time our            named Straford Beer who had a
heroes can appropriate something            scheme to use networked computers
if it's needed for the greater              to coordinate the economic
good (though they mention they'll           production of Allende's Chile...
have to replace it later)...
                                                        PLATFORM_FOR_CHANGE
But then our heroes are definitely
insiders, if not celebrities and
their lives don't seem to be
representative of how other people
might live.  And actually, fairly
often they get things done with
conspiratorial wheeler-dealing in
a casual sort of way...


In 2312, KSR uses a device that I
more-or-less like of including             The show-don't-tell doctrine is
interludes of excerpts from various        very popular and "The door
"non-fiction" works of future history      dialated" is supposed to be the
                                           bees-knees, but I still think
But there's a certain lack of              there's something to be said for
verisimilitude in KSR's story-telling      the direct approach: just tell the
that might be improved. He skips over      reader what you want them to know.
too much...
                                                       TELL_ME_TRUE
For example at one point, I was left
feeling "Okay, but now there's going
to be a long, drawn-out fight... oh,
maybe the bad guy's just gave up and
ran?"  But then a few chapters later
there's a mention of a civil war that
started at that point, which is
something that you'd think would be on
people's minds a little.




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