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MODERATE_LION_HEART
June 29, 2021
Another editorial-- I mean, news "briefing"-- has
arrived in my email this morning from David Leonhardt
of the NYT. DAILY_NAIL
Here he's using PEW breakdowns of These write-ups are actually available
political categories to show us that on-line, though weirdly there's no
the "solid liberal" faction of the obvious link to them in the email:
electorate in New York City is a mere
19%, and that faction is mostly [link]
highly educated white people. So
despite the well publicized AOC and
fellow squad members, you can't
expect the NY mayors race to swing
left.
And there's a lesson to be
learned from this: moderates This is a pretty common
*rule* and you goddamn analysis, though this one has
bernistas and aoc-fans better some interesting overtones of
sit down and shut up or we're reducto ad honky about it: those
going to lose elections. lefties are a bunch of clueless
over-educated white fucks,
unrepresentive of the opinions
of real people of color, who are
sensible enough to listen to the
compulsive moderateness-- I mean
committment to truth-- of
over-educated white fucks like
David Leonhardt.
This is his key point-- supported by many
a link to surveys and studies:
"Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters
are to the right of white Democrats on many There's no mention of
issues. Many voters of color are skeptical age breakdowns there--
of immigration and free trade. They favor as I remember it the
border security, as well as some abortion younger non-whites break
restrictions. They are worried about crime further left-- if that
and oppose cuts to police funding. They are holds as they get older
religious." this argument may very
well lose strenth over time.
Leonhardt sums up:
"The good news for the party is that public-opinion data
shows a clear majority of Americans lean left on economic
issues and are much more moderate on social issues than
many Republicans."
"The bad news for the Democratic Party is that this
national majority is not as liberal as many high-profile
Democratic activists and politicians. It isn’t clear
whether those activists and politicians are willing to
moderate their positions to win more elections."
This, for all it's just-the-facts-mam tone of certainty
(a Leonhardt specialty) is skipping quite a bit of things,
to the point where it's difficult to know where to begin.
o what was the funding like for these candidates? RANKEDCHOICE
when there's a lefty in the race, the "centrists"
tend to suck up all the money, and then all the oxygen.
o what was the media attention like for these candidates?
Big media increasingly means big money, so media
spin is owned by our lords and masters.
o Leonhardt frames this as a "lesson for democrats
from the ny mayor's race", but while the moderate
dude is ahead at present it's actually going to If the moderate
be a pretty close race-- loses then the
moderates, being
very reasonable
people, will no
doubt reconsider
their opinions on
political strategy.
(Just kidding.)
MODERATE_JIHAD
Let's start here:
The core principle underlying this kind of analysis is
"tell 'em what they (think they) want to hear":
The core moderate principle is having none.
Just as a practical matter, I think it's difficult to
win elections with candidates that people don't
perceive as genuine.
Need I remind that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump?
Yeah, okay, not the popular vote, so let me rephrase this:
Hillary Clinton ran a close election
*against Donald fucking Trump*.
Every clever analysis supporting the idea of Being
Moderate has to run up against this one simple fact.
Has anyone made any attempt at
all at surveying voter
perceptions of candidate
sincerity and the influence of
that on elections?
Another point:
Is there any room at all for something
like "leadership" in the moderate's view
of the world?
Is a candidate allowed to go
"Yes, I know many people
disagree with this position,
but I think if they listen to
me make the case for it I can
persuade them."
Bernie Sanders lost the primary to Joe
Biden, but Biden has swung much farther
left than most of us expected-- it's
pretty clear that the Bernies and AOCs
opened the door for Biden to do this,
didn't they?
And if the Moderistas had their way,
this door would still be solidly shut.
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